At a glance
- After a strong US jobs report on November 6, markets raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike from 67% to 80%. This is a market forecast, not a Fed decision.
- The dollar index jumped about 0.7% in a day to around 102. In Vietnam, Vietcombank sold dollars at VND25,730 while unofficial points were around VND26,050.
- Because the Fed has not decided anything yet, it is more practical to map out when and how much dollar or dong you need than to predict direction.
- Before exchanging or transferring, confirm the applied rate, fees, limits and documentation with your bank, and consult a professional on tax or legal questions.
What changed: a fresh reason for dollar strength
On November 6, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 165,000 jobs in October, about double what markets expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings, however, rose only 3.1% year on year, below inflation of 3.7%.
In short, the labour market is solid but wages are not keeping up with prices. That gives Federal Reserve officials more room to consider further rate increases. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, asked whether more tightening is needed, said the answer was clearly “yes” and that curbing inflation must be the top priority. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also put inflation first. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, after holding rates last month, had said only that the Fed would “wait for more data”.
Markets reacted immediately. The probability of a hike at the December meeting rose to 80% from 67% on November 5. Traders also now expect the next increase in April 2027 rather than June. Again, this is market pricing, not a Fed decision.
Where rates stand now
| Item | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| US dollar index | 102.20 (early Nov 9) | Jumped about 0.7% on Nov 6, the biggest one-day gain in nearly six months |
| Euro/dollar | $1.11485 | Near its weakest since May 2025 |
| Dollar/yen | 158.185 yen | Eased 0.2% after a 0.6% jump on Friday |
| Vietcombank dollar selling rate | VND25,730 | Down 0.19% over the weekend |
| State Bank of Vietnam reference rate | VND25,610 | Down 0.02% |
| Unofficial market dollar selling rate | About VND26,050 | Up 0.39% in the Nov 9 report |
Unofficial figures vary from report to report. On November 7 they were reported at VND25,910, down 0.84%. Two days later they were reported near VND26,050. The takeaway is simply that they can move a lot within a day or two.
The gap is worth noticing. On November 9, the Vietcombank selling rate and the unofficial rate were about VND320 apart. The Vietcombank selling rate was also above the State Bank reference rate. So the same dollar can cost you noticeably different amounts depending on where you trade and which rate is applied.
Who is affected
1. You are paid in dollars or earn dollar income
While the dollar is strong, the same dollar amount may convert into more dong. But the dong/dollar rate also responds to Vietnam-specific factors, not just Fed expectations. These articles do not support a forecast of where the dong will go.
2. You earn in dong and send money abroad
If the dollar gains value, converting dong into dollars to send out can become relatively less favourable. If your timing is flexible, you could consider splitting a transfer over several dates instead of sending it all at once. This is not a bet on direction. It is a common way to spread exchange-rate risk.
3. You have dollar-denominated expenses
If rent, tuition or a contract is priced in dollars, your cost in dong moves with the exchange rate. Re-read the contract for the conversion date and the rate it uses.
4. You measure your finances in another home currency
The sources contain no data on other home currencies against the dollar. For Korean nationals: there is no won/dollar data here, so check the Korean-side rate separately to see your won-based gain or loss.
What to do now
- List your timing and amounts. Write down how much dollar or dong you will need over the next three to six months. This separates urgent exchanges and transfers from those that can wait.
- Compare applied rates and fees. Banks differ in buying and selling rates and in transfer fees. Compare the total cost at two or three banks on the same day.
- Check limits and documents. Outbound transfers may have purpose-based limits and required paperwork. Ask your bank branch or customer service for the current requirements [needs verification].
- Treat unofficial rates as a reference only. Unofficial exchange points quote different and more volatile rates, and using them may carry legal and fraud risks. Using licensed financial institutions is the safer default [needs verification].
- Note the December Fed meeting. If the outcome differs from market expectations, the dollar’s path could change. If you plan to move a large sum, keep the possibility of volatility around the meeting in mind.
The tax connection
Separate from currency exchange and transfers, Vietnamese personal income tax and any relief from double taxation depend on your residency status and type of income. The articles behind this piece did not cover tax changes, so no conclusion is drawn here. For salary-transfer records and tax payment documents, check with your company’s HR or finance team or a qualified tax adviser.
Summary
Strong US jobs data pushed market expectations for a December Fed hike up to 80% and sent the dollar index sharply higher. Nothing is decided yet, and Vietnamese rates differ noticeably between banks and the unofficial market. Rather than trying to call the rate, you will probably get more value from checking how much you need, when you need it, and what rate and fees you will actually be charged. This article is general information, not investment, legal or tax advice.
Frequently asked questions
Is a Fed rate hike in December confirmed?
No. After the November 6 jobs report, markets raised the odds of a December hike from 67% to 80%. The actual decision will come at the meeting.
How big is the gap between Vietcombank and unofficial market rates?
In the November 9 reports, Vietcombank sold dollars at VND25,730 and unofficial points at about VND26,050, a gap of roughly VND320. Unofficial rates are volatile, so treat them as a reference only.
If the dollar is strong, should I exchange or transfer money right now?
These articles cannot establish the direction of exchange rates, and this is not a recommendation to trade. Decide when and how much you need first, then discuss whether to split transfers with your bank or an adviser.
Sources
- Dollar weakens against dong on black market
- Dollar dips against dong
- Quan chức Fed cân nhắc tăng lãi sau báo cáo việc làm khả quan
This article summarises publicly available reports and is not legal, tax or investment advice. Check with the relevant authorities or a qualified adviser before making important decisions.