At a glance
- VN-Index fell for four straight sessions to 1,699 on Nov 3, losing 67 points in total, then rose 33 points to 1,733 on Nov 4.
- Margin calls at brokerages were cited as a direct trigger for the Nov 2 sell-off, and many individual stocks fell much harder than the index.
- On the rebound day, breadth and turnover improved and foreign net selling shrank, but foreigners were still net sellers for a ninth straight session.
- Brokerage views are split between a possible technical bounce and caution until a bottom is confirmed. Trading decisions are yours, and professional advice is advisable.
What happened over three sessions
The first week of November was a sharp reminder of how quickly sentiment can turn on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange. The VN-Index lost the 1,700 level, then won much of it back within a day. Based on local reports (VnExpress), the sequence looked like this:
| Date | VN-Index close | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | 1,710 | Down more than 30 points | Fell as much as 48 points intraday, briefly below 1,700. Turnover above VND 18,500 billion |
| Nov 3 | 1,699 | Down 11 points | Two-week low. Turnover under VND 13,000 billion, the lowest in about half a month |
| Nov 4 | 1,733 | Up 33 points | VN30 up 46 points (2.56%). Turnover close to VND 18,000 billion |
By Nov 3 the index had fallen four sessions in a row, losing 67 points in total. The Nov 4 rally broke that streak.
Why the sell-off was sharper than the index suggests
Margin calls amplified the selling
On Nov 2, the heaviest selling came after the lunch break, when several brokerages issued margin calls. A branch director at a Ho Chi Minh City brokerage said the calls went out to both retail and institutional clients, as bank, real estate and oil and gas stocks kept sliding. This is one person’s account, so the full makeup of selling pressure is [needs verification].
The risk with margin calls is the knock-on effect. Investors who must raise cash often sell other holdings in their portfolio. Ho Chi Minh City Securities (HSC) warned that if margin calls or forced liquidations increase, the market may struggle to absorb the supply, which could trigger a longer and deeper correction.
The index held up better than most stocks
MB Securities (MBS) pointed to a “deep divergence”: the index fell modestly, yet most stocks suffered heavy losses. Vingroup-linked shares largely explain the gap. On Nov 2, VIC rose 0.4% and added nearly 2 points to the index. On Nov 3, it fell 3.3% and took more than 13 points off.
HSC estimated that, excluding a few heavily weighted stocks, the market had corrected about 12%. It described conditions as one of the most difficult phases in five years: thin trading, low confidence, and IPOs struggling because newly listed shares had dropped sharply. These are brokerage analysts’ opinions, not established facts.
The practical takeaway is that your own portfolio return can be far better or far worse than the headline index. Judging the whole market from one number can mislead.
How to read the Nov 4 rebound
Positive signs
- Better breadth: Nearly 250 stocks rose, about four times the number that fell. On Nov 2, decliners had outnumbered gainers six to one.
- Large caps joined in: In the VN30 basket, 29 stocks rose and none closed below reference price.
- Brokerages, banks and steel bounced: Every brokerage stock gained, and VCI, VND, VIX and TCX closed at the daily limit-up. Most banks and steel stocks flipped from losses to gains. FPT also hit its limit-up price of VND 53,900.
- Slower foreign selling: Foreign net selling was only about VND 70 billion, versus VND 500-600 billion per session earlier.
Remaining uncertainty
- Foreign investors were net sellers for a ninth consecutive session. The pace slowed, but the direction did not change.
- HSC noted that many investors are waiting on the sidelines for a deeper correction, which limits demand at current prices.
- Even on Nov 4, no single stock on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange traded more than VND 1,000 billion, so turnover was concentrated rather than broad. Half of it came from the VN30 basket.
Forecasts are split. MBS said that over the last 10 years November has risen 70% of the time, with an average return of 3.8%, and saw room for a technical rebound after heavy selling. Yuanta Vietnam, by contrast, saw no clear sign of a bottom. It advised against scattered bottom-fishing and suggested taking profits on winning stocks. Seasonality is historical statistics only and does not guarantee this year’s outcome.
What foreign investors can check
- Leverage: If you use margin loans, check your broker’s maintenance ratio and call rules. On sharp down days, you may be asked to deposit funds within the same day.
- Index versus your holdings: Look at whether your sectors (banks, brokerages, real estate, steel, oil and gas) moved differently from the index.
- Flow indicators: Foreign net selling, turnover and the number of advancing versus declining stocks together help gauge the quality of a rebound.
- Currency and account structure: For investors based outside Vietnam, dong exchange rates, trading costs and taxes are separate variables. For Korean nationals, how overseas holdings are taxed and reported in Korea is one such item. Confirm tax and legal questions with a qualified professional.
Summary
The first week of November was shaped by margin-call selling and heavy dependence on a few large stocks, so the index and the experience of many investors diverged. One day of rebound improved breadth and slowed foreign selling, but foreign net selling and sideline caution remain. This article explains market conditions and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Frequently asked questions
How much did the VN-Index rise on November 4?
It closed at 1,733, up 33 points from the reference level. The VN30 gained 46 points, or 2.56%, its strongest session in two weeks.
Why can margin calls lead to a market sell-off?
When a brokerage demands that clients restore their margin ratio, investors may sell holdings to raise cash. That selling can push other stocks lower and trigger further margin calls. HSC cited this chain reaction as a risk.
Should I trust the claim that November is usually a strong month?
MBS said that over the past 10 years November rose 70% of the time with an average return of 3.8%. That is historical data and does not guarantee this year’s result. Another brokerage, Yuanta Vietnam, urged caution until a bottom is confirmed.
Sources
This article summarises publicly available reports and is not legal, tax or investment advice. Check with the relevant authorities or a qualified adviser before making important decisions.